Forecasts for the 2020 early and late runs of king salmon to the Kenai River are a mixed bag.
According to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, the Kenai early run of kings is expected to be below average, with a forecast of 4,794 fish. If that forecast proves true, it will be less than the recent five-year average of 5,110 fish, and would rank as the eighth lowest run of the last 35 years. However, the forecast is within the optimum escapement goal of 3,900 to 6,600 fish. An optimum escapement goal is set by the Alaska Board of Fisheries and is meant to safeguard the biological needs of the stock while providing for harvest opportunity.
The 2020 early run forecast is higher than last year’s early run forecast of 3,167 fishand last year’s observed return of 4,216 fish.
The forecast for late-run Kenai River kings is more positive, at 22,707 fish. That’s well within the sustainable escapement goal of 13,500 to 27,000 fish. A sustainable escapement goal is developed by Fish and Game, which aims to protect the stock and provide for sustained yield over a five- to 10-year period.
If the late-run forecast proves true, the run will be a little higher than the recent five-year average of about 21,600 fish. Looking farther back, though, if this year’s forecast comes to fruition, the run would rank sixth lowest of the last 35 years of late-run kings, and be about half of the average run size in that time period, of 43,000 fish.
This year’s late run forecast is slightly higher than last year’s forecast of 22,105 fish. But the 2019 forecast ended up significantly overestimating the actual run return, which was more like 12,780 kings. Fish and Game, in this year’s forecast, says the error last year was in overestimating the number of returning 5- and 6-year-old fish, from 2013 and 2014 brood years. Those years were the two lowest brood year escapements on record — before 2019, anyway, which now is the lowest of all in since 1986.
The 2020 late run should be made up of mostly 2014 and 2015 brood year escapements. The 2015 escapement was about 4,800 fish higher than in 2014, and is expected to have produced more offspring, which should be returning this year.
All these numbers are estimates of large kings, which Fish and Game defines as at least 34 inches in total length.
The number of kings caught in commercial fisheries in Upper Cook Inlet has been declining, along with escapement numbers. In 2018, the east-side setnet fishery reported catching 2,312 kings. That’s down from 7,573 fish 10 years prior.
Fish and Game is holding off on making any decisions on potential fishing restrictions until after the Board of Fish meeting next month. There are several proposals pertaining to Upper Cook Inlet that could change management of Kenai Peninsula fisheries this year.
