Republican candidates Tuckerman Babcock and Justin Ruffridge are ahead in their respective state primary races, per the latest Wednesday afternoon update from the Alaska Division of Elections.
Unofficial results show Babcock leading over Republican Jesse Bjorkman for Senate District Seat D, representing the northern Kenai Peninsula down to Clam Gulch, with just under 50 percent of the votes. Bjorkman has 37 percent of votes so far and Andy Cizek, who’s running without party affiliation, has about 14.2 percent
In House District 7, representing Kenai and Soldotna, Ruffridge has 56 percent of the votes cast to Republican incumbent Ron Gillham’s 44 percent.
Incumbent Republican Ben Carpenter, representing the northern Kenai Peninsula for House District 8, is running unopposed in his race.
Those results aren’t final, yet. And pollster Ivan Moore with Alaska Survey Research said it’s hard to tell whether candidates’ leads will hold for the Nov. 8 general election.
"It’s been a long time in Alaska since we last had primary elections where everyone voted on the same ballot," he said.
He said before the open primary elections, analysts didn’t usually get this sort of preview of the general election. That’s one thing that makes the numbers unpredictable.
"And also, the makeup of the primary electorate is a little bit different to the way it is in November," he said. "A different set of people shows up."
He said what the primaries do provide are bragging rights for candidates in the lead.
For his part, Babcock said he’s encouraged and humbled by the confidence boost from voters in his race.
"This first part of the campaign has been spent meeting people and introducing myself," he said Wednesday. "And I think we’ll transition some to pointing out some policy differences with my opponent."
U.S. House special election
One of the races on yesterday’s ballots was a general election — but it’s too soon to call a winner, yet.
Democrat Mary Peltola is currently ahead in the special general election for U.S. House, with about 38 percent of the votes so far. Republican Sarah Palin is next, with 32 percent, while Nick Begich trails with just under 29 percent.
The Division of Elections is waiting for by-mail votes to come in. Many of those are coming from rural Alaska, where Moore said Peltola is expected to do well.
But he said Peltola will have to up her lead quite a bit if she is to stay ahead, per the new ranked-choice system. When the third-place vote getter gets eliminated later this month, their share of the vote will be distributed. He said a survey from his group shows those votes will get split about 2-1 between the others two candidates.
"And so, at the end of the day, it it be close, between Palin and Peltola," he said. "But Palin is probably the favorite to hang on."
Palin raked in more votes than her opponents on the central Kenai Peninsula, with 47 percent in District 7 and 51 percent in District 8.
The candidate who wins the special general election will serve for the remainder of the late Congressman Don Young’s Congressional term, which will end this coming January. The race is to be certified in early September.
Alaska governor
Meanwhile, Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce appears poised to advance to the general gubernatorial election. The Republican candidate has a distant fourth place, with about seven percent of the votes. But he’s still ahead of the fifth-place finisher, Republican Christopher Kurka, who has just under four percent.
Under the new election system, the top four vote-getters in the primary will advance to the general in November.
Republican Incumbent Mike Dunleavy has enough votes to move forward, with nearly 42 percent of all votes. Non-partisan Bill Walker and Democrat Les Gara also have enough votes, each with 22 percent.
Voter turnout
Voter turnout in House District 7 is about 26 percent so far for this election. For District 8, it’s 34 percent.