Forecasters from the National Weather Service Alaska Region predict the Kenai Peninsula could see either wetter or warmer weather this summer. Much of the eastern half of the state is forecasted to expect similar conditions.
National Weather Service climate scientist Brian Brettschneider says it’s hard to predict this summer’s forecast with accuracy. He says because of climate change, Alaska has recently seen some of the warmest summers on record. But, Alaska is soon forecasted to see a change in weather patterns, from a warmer and drier El Niño summer to a wetter and cooler La Niña summer.
“We have these signals that are sort of pointing in opposite directions, so it gives us a less degree of certainty or confidence in the forecast compared to most summers," Brettschneider said. "The current thinking is maybe a little bit warmer than normal and a little bit wetter than normal.”
Other factors that drive summer temperatures include cloud coverage and rain, Brettschneider says.
“If it does end up being wetter than normal, then we should expect fewer 70-degree days than typical,” he said.
While the National Weather Service can’t predict exact temperatures or rainfall amounts this far out, the forecast provides guidance on what to expect. You can speak to an Alaska-based forecaster by calling the National Weather Service office in Anchorage.
